11/10/18 Saturday noonish

Don’t get your hopes for the Sunday/Monday storm

Many of you may have seen this flying about the ole interwebs this morning, a few people have already asked me about it. Here is the total snowfall forecasted by the CAIC WRF.

Let me first start by saying that there are some things I really like about the CAIC models. Primarily that you can see the WRF HiRes overlayed on the San Juans. I wish I could do that with my subscription service. What I don’t like is that they take so long to generate the model runs you end up with old data. In the case of this one, it was last nights 5 pm run, and it probably wasn’t available until way after midnight. The other thing is I don’t think short term models do very well after 12 hours or so. Using my service I get the 5 am run at about 7:30 am. As I said I don’t trust it unless it is the day of the storm, nevertheless, check out this morning’s run. These are both for snowfall ending Monday at 5 am.

Hmmm… Huge difference. Could it be wrong? Of course, as I said I don’t trust it except the day of, so we will look at it tomorrow morning. The GFS and Euro tend to agree with it.

Here is the Euro then the GFS

Pretty similar, but I think we need to go a different route. 700 MB temps are supposed to be between 5 and 15 degrees(f). What does “700MB temps” mean? That will the topic of another nerd post, but for now, equate it to 10,000 feet in elevation (9,878 to be exact). What it really means is the snow ratios will be higher than 10-1 so here is another look at the Euro with 15-1 ratios, that is going to likely be more accurate.

Next Update tomorrow.