Thanksgiving snow and a peek ahead.

Thursday afternoon or evening it looks like we should get some snow. A colder storm will come in on Saturday it may be the same amount of precipitation but the ratios may be better for the fluffy stuff. There is good agreement among the models for Thursday, however, a few details still need to be worked out for Saturday so I will concentrate on Thursday. At the moment the snow level for Thursday afternoon should be between 6,500-7,000 feet. I hope as is often the case, the system will be delayed a few hours so everyone will get snow. The models seem too light with the snow.  There is a lot of moisture on the way to California and some of the burn areas in Northern California may receive 5-7 inches of rain between Wednesday and Sunday. The exit region of the 160-knot jet will be right over us Thursday afternoon/evening.

 

JetCapture

The storm will be very short-lived, as of right now the models look less than impressive, hopefully, as the storm moves into California we will see the models adjust those totals up a bit. Here is what the Euro currently has for Thursday. As I said I would not be surprised to see these totals adjust up. If we see an anomalously high total on a run between now and then, I would take it seriously. Of course, I will post it if I see it.

Euro snow total ending Friday

ecmwf_tsnow_colorado_15

For now, Friday looks like a pretty good travel day. Saturday is still up in the air the models agree on the idea just not the impact. Whatever happens, it will move out very quickly on Sunday and cause a blizzard in the Plains States, likely through Kansas and Missouri on Sunday and Monday. After that models are trying to sort out what could be an AR (atmospheric river) event near the end of the month around the 28th-30th. The Euro has not bought in but the GFS and Canadian have. The Canadian is actually blowing up at the idea. It is completely irresponsible of me to post this, but we have not seen this much color on a model around here in two years. It is a reminder of what can happen. Don’t take it with more than a grain of salt for now.  10 days is a long time and I am sure it will change many times. But for now, we can have fun dreaming! Canadian model below.

cmc_snow_acc_colorado_41

One thought on “Thanksgiving snow and a peek ahead.

  1. Thanks so much!

    On Tue, Nov 20, 2018 at 12:16 PM Durango Weather Guy wrote:

    > durangoweatherguy posted: “Thursday afternoon or evening it looks like we > should get some snow. A colder storm will come in on Saturday it may be the > same amount of precipitation but the ratios may be better for the fluffy > stuff. There is good agreement among the models for Thursda” >

    Like

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