I was hoping to see a little spike in the accumulations from the models but that has not yet happened. I still prefer to handle this as two storms, but the lull between does seem to be narrowing, with the second storm coming in Friday night according to models. All of the factors still could change between now and then. Hope for that delay if you want snow and live below 7,200 feet because that looks like it will be the maximum level for rain before snow tomorrow late afternoon. The heaviest snow will fall everywhere after dark but it is not going to last long. Again things could change, we will see. For now, I am looking at 0-2 inches for elevations below 7,200 feet with 2-5 generally everywhere else. The models have been highlighting the DWest to Hesperus and up to Mayday for that 2-5 with less on the eastern portion of the county. Just because it says that now does not mean it won’t change overnight. Purgatory looks in the 2-5 inch category as well for the first storm. Telluride should do better with the second storm. Wolf Creek could be in the 4-7 inch range for the first. I will post throughout the day tomorrow so make sure to check back.
Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 316 PM MST Wed Nov 21 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER RETURNS IMPACTING HOLIDAY TRAVEL THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING... .Two storm systems will affect the area Thursday through early Sunday morning, impacting holiday travel due to snow and blowing snow. The first will bring snow and blowing snow to the higher terrain of western Colorado Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, with the heaviest snow rates expected late Thursday afternoon and evening on one of the busiest travel days of the year. A brief break will occur Friday afternoon before the next stronger and colder storm system moves in Friday evening through early Sunday morning. Significant snow accumulations are possible in the mountains and some higher valleys causing impacts to travel centered around Saturday afternoon and evening. COZ018-019-220700- /O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0031.181122T1700Z-181123T1900Z/ Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Including the cities of Telluride, Ouray, Lake City, Silverton, Rico, and Hesperus 316 PM MST Wed Nov 21 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO NOON MST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts at the peaks expected. * WHERE...San Juan Mountains. This includes Red Mountain Pass, Coal Bank Pass, Molas Pass and Lizard Head Pass. * WHEN...From 10 AM Thursday to noon MST Friday. Snow rates will be greatest late Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening, impacting holiday evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact holiday travel over higher elevation highways and mountain passes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.