Noon

Enough of the data is out from the Euro morning run for me to update you. It looks very similar to the GFS for the first storm, it also now is starting to dial in the second storm (Sunday).

I will not be changing my projected accumulations at this time. Here is what the Euro has for the first storm.

Looks pretty good except for Wolf Creek and Cortez. I am not sure what it is seeing. The 3 is at the airport. Now for the second storm. Below are the additional totals from the second storm.

A couple of things to keep in mind, Sunday is going to be much colder, ratios will range from 12-1 and up to 20-1 at the highest elevations.  So if the Euro is correct the 2 storm totals will a little higher than this by Monday.

One thing you will notice is the northern areas don’t add much to their totals on Sunday. Two reasons: The ratios on this projection are 10-1. Purg will see likely of 18-1 with the second storm. Mid-elevations 15-1, lower elevations 12-1. The second reason may be because the Euro is starting to see what I explained earlier as my theory that the heavier precip could stay south of Hermosa during the second storm.

I am very confident in the first storm. I am not nearly as confident in the second storm, while I like the new Euro run, the storm is very far away. Here it is at noon today circled in yellow.

I should have another post between 4 and 5:30 this afternoon.