5:30 am
I am not going to have time to break this all down in the time I have. This whole weather set up for our area is very atypical in Winter. However, I think this is similar to what we will see between large systems this Winter so I am going to have to get used to it.
The models are still struggling, at issue is going to be the rain snow level. When these advisories were issued it is apparent to me that the incident forecaster was influenced by last nights GFS and mostly the EURO. The overnight GFS went ahead and sped things up even more, and the overnight WRF did the same thing, with much higher snow amounts during the day today. I certainly understand the earlier start for the higher altitudes, I am pretty sure looking at the water vapor it has already started in some areas. Looking at my model that predicts the snow levels it actually has them low until noon tomorrow, when they shoot up to 7,500′. Of course, according to the NWS everything should be done by then. This would indicate that we will be cooling the entire time the precip is increasing.
Bottom line, absolutely almost everything is out of sync, that being said I would take these advisories seriously as the start times may be moved up.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 342 AM MST Thu Dec 6 2018 COZ022-023-062230- /O.NEW.KGJT.WW.Y.0036.181207T0100Z-181207T1600Z/ Animas River Basin-San Juan River Basin- Including the cities of Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, and Pagosa Springs 342 AM MST Thu Dec 6 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches expected with locally higher amounts in the vicinity of Pagosa Springs. The snow may be mixed with rain early this evening. * WHERE...Animas River Basin and San Juan River Basin. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 9 AM MST Friday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute, especially along Highways 160 and 550. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 342 AM MST Thu Dec 6 2018 COZ018-019-062230- /O.NEW.KGJT.WW.Y.0036.181206T1900Z-181207T1600Z/ Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Including the cities of Telluride, Ouray, Lake City, Silverton, Rico, and Hesperus 342 AM MST Thu Dec 6 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM MST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches expected. * WHERE...Northwest San Juan Mountains and Southwest San Juan Mountains. * WHEN...From noon today to 9 AM MST Friday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, especially over Red Mountain, Coal Bank and Molas Passes on Highway 550, Lizard Head Pass on Highway 145 and Slumgullion Pass on Highway 149. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
Thanks, Jeff!
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