I like the advisory for the lower elevations, I just think that they should have started it earlier, especially with the 60+ snow reports I have already gotten in the last hour.
The Euro really picks things up between 11 am and 5 pm. It does have a lull this evening as does the WRF, they both bring another wave through for the morning commute. The Euro has rain below 6,500′. That could be a mess.
As far as the 8,500+’ goes the 4-8″ I suppose is fine but I think somewhere in the middle will be more common. The greatest amounts should fall in the La Platas and north of Mancos to Dolores.
The jet is very favorable this afternoon, it will shut off later, that is when the lull will happen, then switch to NW flow which should only benefit a few areas. The darker blue indicates heavier snow.
Here is the EURO between 11-5pm.
Here is the jet picking up at 1 pm
As I said this morning I would act as if the advisory is already in place (I still don’t understand why they haven’t changed it). I would also tell you that as we have seen a couple of times, there may be changes as this approaches.
Check out the surface map, I circled a shortwave trough extending all of the way to Arizona, north of us is stationary front that I have a hunch is dropping south and lastly notice “the storm” is still off the California coast spinning around. In other words, there are a lot of components, and they can move in and out of our favor.
As I finish this, I just glanced at the waper vapor imagery and it appears it has jogged just slightly south and east. But there is another wave behind it.