Christmas first peek

5 am

 

For a while, I have been talking about the pattern changing after 12/23. I am probably a couple days from posting individual model runs, however, most models are challenging the notion that we will end up with less than 6 inches of snow in town for December.

Between now and then there are a couple of weak features that will cross the region and may result in some light snow in the San Juan, San Miguel and Ouray Counties. But I want to jump ahead start looking at late next weekend through the end of the month.

Below is the current ugly pattern we are in. The colors do not correspond to temperature, the correspond to air pressure at 20,000 or so feet, with the red colors indicating anomalously high pressure (a ridge).

1217gfs_z500a_noram_2

Let’s fast forward to Christmas day.

Euro Ensemble

1217

GEFS (GFS ensemble)

1225gfs_z500a_noram_34

CMC

1217cmc

At this point, the models are usually confused about how many storms will come through this cycle and at what frequency. They often times will show one large storm that turns out to be two or three that turn out to be two, this where I use the saying, right for the wrong reason.    Stay tuned.

 

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