Holiday Update

10 am

This Weekend

A slow moving cold front is going to try to settle in over the State over the next couple of days. Snow will be more prominent in the northern and central mountains, however as that front light snow is likely to break out as early as later today, but more likely tonight and tomorrow from Purgatory to the north with a chance of decent accumulation around Red Mountain. Light snow or flurries could make an appearance, especially in at or above 7,400′. Don’t count on it, but don’t be surprised either.  South of Purgatory I do not expect accumulations.

Monday Tuesday and Wednesday

As the colder air settles in a vigorous storm will start making its way onshore on the west coast. The models diverge a bit after that. It does appear snow will make an appearance, what is still unclear is when. The most recent model runs show on-and-off snow on Monday, with a stronger wave coming in sometime on Christmas day. This is going to be evolving as we go through the weekend so keep checking back.

 

GFS

There have been some big swings back and forth on the snow totals over the last several days. The GFS has been pretty inconsistent with accumulations, I think it is trying to sniff another storm out around the 28th/29th.  Whereas the Euro is trying to bring everything at once. Here is the latest and most enthusiastic run the GFS has had for a while.

122112zGFS

This is between Monday 12/24 and Thursday morning 12/27. The 6″ is forecasted for the airport. Before you get too excited, it has had considerably lower accumulations in the last several runs prior to this. Prior runs averaged 3.5″ at the airport and 9″ at Purgatory. Here is a link to a map I added to the site so you can figure out what it is forecasting at your location.   Reference Map of County

There is further evidence of a second storm when you look 10 days out with the GFS.

1231GFS

Euro

The Euro model that has flipped and become the more consistent model over its last 5 runs for our area. However, it is trying to decide what to do with the storm as it departs our area and is fluctuating back and forth with the idea of a major winter storm for Denver and the plains. A few runs back I saw the same thing with the GFS and Canadian. This is why I mentioned on Facebook that if you are traveling that way there are some suggestions that something major could develop.

Here are the last 2 runs of the Euro.

Last night

euro12210z

This morning

euro122112z

Again, these totals are through Thursday morning. You can see it struggling with Denver and the plains. Over the last 6 runs, the Euro has had an average of 5″ at the airport with 11″ at Purgatory.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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