Where it goes nobody knows

11:30 am

As promised these storms are not going to give away any secrets. What they are struggling with is a band of intense snowfall that is going to set up somewhere between Pagosa and the vicinity of Bluff, Utah. The models have had it in every location in between. Last night the Euro had in Utah as you see below.

monnighteuro

See the location of the purple indicating 6 to 8″

Here is this morning’s Euro.

tuesmorneuro

The band set up right over Cortez and the Mancos Valley. There is no way to know at this point what is going to happen. In previous runs, it set up the band from Bayfield to Lake City. It has also been right over the 550 corridor. With so much uncertainty it is difficult to forecast with any degree of accuracy.  Pre-frontal moisture should arrive later this afternoon and could trigger snow anywhere from about Electra Lake to Red Mountain Pass.

There are more questions than answers on the second storm (of course). The new GFS (FV-3 version) is very ambitious with its totals even at 10-1 ration, and they should be at least 15-1 with the colder in place. The Euro is not as ambitious but does show at least as much from the second storm as this first one. We will cross that bridge when we come to it.

I hope everyone has a safe, happy day today. I will be monitoring what is happening and may post if something changes either way. If the afternoon GFS run comes more into the Euro’s solution or if the short term models make up their mind that would be encouraging.

2 thoughts on “Where it goes nobody knows

  1. Eric Janes

    Thanks for your great efforts in trying to figure out the dynamics, Jeff. You are very good at this,
    and we Mancos Valley residents appreciate you very much! Have a wonderful Christmas.

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