Models are waffling back and forth on the next storm which only gives us a potential window of opportunity. I have not moved off my 50/50 chances of a repeat of yesterday. If we get 24 hours or so of more consistency in the runs I will feel more comfortable. Cold enough air will be in place so as we saw yesterday very little will be needed to produce snow.
The models are pretty unpredictable 10 days out, we all know that. That being said most forecasters look that far out, heck most look 45 days out and they never completely dismiss everything they see, but they may not release the information in print or mention it in public. I was going to wait 3 or 4 days to start talking about the weather in the 10 day period. But the NWS dropped a slight hint in their forecast discussion. What is starting to show up in the GFS and now the Euro is a subtropical tap of moisture coming into the SW United States. The only reason I am bringing this up is because the amounts of precipitation the models are indicating are nothing short of copious, and no one will be able to keep their mouths shut for long. So I wanted you to hear it from me so I can present all of the facts that I know at this time.
Again we don’t know where it could go through. It could be Mexico, Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado or all or some of the above. I obviously would not be writing about it unless there was even a slight chance it could hit us. Before you get excited here is what I know so far. What has been showing up is a snow-rain-snow event. The all snow level right now is between 9,000 and 10,500 feet. Depending on which model you look at 2 to 4″ of liquid. That would be great for the drought. Not so great for the snowslides and flooding. Again this is 9-11 days away. There are a lot of other potential scenarios if it stayed enough south and the cold air didn’t get modified, but the moisture overran into our area it could be great. It certainly could miss us completely. The models have been between a bullseye and a complete miss, one run it has a complete hit, the next run a complete miss, not unusual for this far out.
I will be updating on Monday and Tuesday as I see some consistency in the models.