Final Thoughts

 

The GFS came in for the most part in line with the WRF. The GFS always tries to move storms out too quickly from east to west, it is a well-known bias. It is also why most of our storms are delayed, the constant reliance that forecasters have on the GFS, they usually fall for it 80% of the time. If you look at your point forecasts you will see the NWS increased them for most areas, but most significantly in areas east of 550. They have not had a good record with the point forecasts increases at night, but we will see. It is not inconceivable given what the models are predicting. The very short-term HRRR model is not my favorite. It is great in Texas and flat states but not so much in terrain. That being said it is showing an uptick in precip between 6 and 9 pm.

Here is its representation of the radar at 8 pm. This model updates hourly so it is new data.

hrrr_ref_colorado_7.png

You can see what will be heading in a little later from the southwest. That should be it for me until the morning. Be safe tonight and Happy New Years!

 

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