3 am
Every model I monitor agrees, we are going to get pummeled, and now they have brought Purgatory into play! I can’t remember how long it has been since we had this type of model consistency for this long, probably 2009, which is one of the years I had mentioned months ago in comparison to this year. All of the Warnings have been changed. First, a look at the models.
GFS
NAM
WRF (NAM HiRes)
Euro
SLR (snow liquid ratios) are expected to vary between 17-1 and 20-1. I don’t have a great way to depict that but here is what a 15-1 ratio does.
Here are the warnings: The morning commute they are referring to is tomorrow morning. UPDATE They have just changed them again and added Cortez and Mancos. 10 minutes ago they had a separate package for 5-10″ and included Dolores, Dolores should still be in that category 5-10″ category.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
259 AM MST MON DEC 31 2018
COZ021>023-311800-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0013.181231T1300Z-190102T0000Z/
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CORTEZ, DOVE CREEK, MANCOS, DURANGO,
BAYFIELD, IGNACIO, AND PAGOSA SPRINGS
259 AM MST MON DEC 31 2018
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING
TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY...
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO
14 INCHES EXPECTED WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES.
* WHERE...ANIMAS RIVER BASIN AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.
* WHEN...FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO
IMPOSSIBLE ON ALL ROADS IN AND AROUND DURANGO AND PAGOSA
SPRINGS. THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE MORNING AND
EVENING COMMUTE.
COZ019-311800-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0013.181231T1300Z-190102T0000Z/
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
259 AM MST MON DEC 31 2018
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING
TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY...
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO
20 INCHES EXPECTED WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 FEET.
* WHERE...SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN...FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO
IMPOSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 550 FROM RED MOUNTAIN
PASS SOUTH AND HIGHWAY 145 OVER LIZARD HEAD PASS. THE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE MORNING AND EVENING
COMMUTE, WITH ROAD CLOSURES EXPECTED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL, KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
COZ018-311800-
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190102T0000Z/
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, AND LAKE CITY
259 AM MST MON DEC 31 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST
TUESDAY...
* WHAT...SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
* WHERE...NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN...UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...PLAN ON SNOWPACKED AND ICY ROAD
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT.
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