New Warnings Big Model Runs

On By durangoweatherguy

3 am

Every model I monitor agrees, we are going to get pummeled, and now they have brought Purgatory into play! I can’t remember how long it has been since we had this type of model consistency for this long, probably 2009, which is one of the years I had mentioned months ago in comparison to this year. All of the Warnings have been changed. First, a look at the models.

GFS

GFSmon6z

NAM

nammon6z

WRF (NAM HiRes)

wrfmon6

Euro

euromon6z

 

SLR (snow liquid ratios) are expected to vary between 17-1 and 20-1. I don’t have a great way to depict that but here is what a 15-1 ratio does.

 

euro1521

 

Here are the warnings: The morning commute they are referring to is tomorrow morning. UPDATE They have just changed them again and added Cortez and Mancos. 10 minutes ago they had a separate package for 5-10″ and included Dolores, Dolores should still be in that category 5-10″ category.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
259 AM MST MON DEC 31 2018  
  
COZ021>023-311800-  
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0013.181231T1300Z-190102T0000Z/  
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-  
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CORTEZ, DOVE CREEK, MANCOS, DURANGO,   
BAYFIELD, IGNACIO, AND PAGOSA SPRINGS  
259 AM MST MON DEC 31 2018  
  
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING  
TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO   
  14 INCHES EXPECTED WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES.  
  
* WHERE...ANIMAS RIVER BASIN AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.  
  
* WHEN...FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY.  
  
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO   
  IMPOSSIBLE ON ALL ROADS IN AND AROUND DURANGO AND PAGOSA   
  SPRINGS. THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE MORNING AND   
  EVENING COMMUTE.
COZ019-311800-  
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0013.181231T1300Z-190102T0000Z/  
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS  
259 AM MST MON DEC 31 2018  
  
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING  
TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO   
  20 INCHES EXPECTED WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 FEET.  
  
* WHERE...SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.  
  
* WHEN...FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY.  
  
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO   
  IMPOSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 550 FROM RED MOUNTAIN   
  PASS SOUTH AND HIGHWAY 145 OVER LIZARD HEAD PASS. THE   
  HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE MORNING AND EVENING   
  COMMUTE, WITH ROAD CLOSURES EXPECTED.  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER  
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. IF YOU  
MUST TRAVEL, KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD AND WATER IN YOUR  
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. 

COZ018-311800-  
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190102T0000Z/  
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, AND LAKE CITY  
259 AM MST MON DEC 31 2018  
  
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST  
TUESDAY...  
  
* WHAT...SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES   
  WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  
  
* WHERE...NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.  
  
* WHEN...UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY.  
  
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...PLAN ON SNOWPACKED AND ICY ROAD   
  CONDITIONS. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT.  
  

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