2 pm

I need to start with a disclaimer that I don’t like afternoon model runs in the US models. I don’t like them because for whatever reason they always seem less accurate. My experience is the overnight and morning runs are more accurate. It may have something to do with data collection, I am not sure.

There are a number of reports of 4″-6″ of snow that has fallen in the area today (as of 2pm). There have been some big totals in Mayday and Dolores approaching a foot already.  Remember if you are reporting snow amounts clear off the area that you measure about every 4″ or so to make sure you avoid snow compaction.

With my disclaimer in place here is the new HiResolution WRF run. It is lower than the previous run but as I keep saying you have to account for what has fallen. So this is what it says could fall for the rest of the storm from 11 am this morning to the end. The trend I see is a slight movement to higher precip east of 550. It still shows Purg catching up, but as with the last few storms, I have been concerned due to a lack of consistency in the amounts the models have predicted for up there. While further south the models have been very consistent with amounts.


There are still some big totals being predicted given the 17-19 to 1 SLR multipliers. This is showing over 2 more feet at Wolf Creek!

I will likely have one more comment after the NWS does their afternoon deal and after I see the GFS (afternoon disclaimer applies).


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