Morning models very consistent

9:30am

The Euro won’t be out for a while and I will include it in my afternoon update. Models trending up as a storm gets closer is encouraging. Edging is the correct term because they are just very slight increases. This morning I looked at 3 three lower resolution models, the Canadian, NAM and the GFS as well as 1 high resolution model the WRF 3km. With the low-resolution models, you see they “smooth” the totals over a larger area by averaging high and low elevation totals, the result is too high low elevation totals and too low high elevation totals. Here are the model runs from lowest resolution to highest resolution.

The Canadian we are looking at the trend not  necessarily the total

cmc

The GFS is just very slightly lower resolution than the NAM notice between the two how they prioritize geography in the area they sample. The GFS had an algorithm upgrade a couple of years ago, in some cases it is better in others it is worse.

GFS

gfs12z

NAM

nam12z.png

The high-resolution WRF 3km samples a much smaller area and refines those totals. 12zwrf

For the moment I am on board with what I see here I will try to refine some of the areas further this afternoon. For the moment I still like 3-6″ below 7,200′, 4-8″ between 7,200′-8,000′ and 5-10″ above 8,000′. Aztec and Farmington would be in the 1-3″ range.

 

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