What a difference 6 hours makes in a model run. There have been hints all along that southern areas would be favored if this system came just right. The new high-resolution model is saying that it will, it has done very well in the past with this type of set up. The model is highlighting many of the areas to the south of 160 above 7,000′.
On the west side, Breen to Long Hollow, up to Trappers and Shenandoah, Rafter J, Lake Durango Dwest 1&2. I would expect many areas to receive over 6 inches pushing 10 in some isolated areas. North Hesperus up La Plata Canyon will likely see double digits.
The model is not handling the East County very well. It does show some spikes up the 240 corridor above 6″. It is less confident with the 501 corridor north of Bear Creek. Experience tells me not to write that off, I see no reason those favored areas won’t do well with 6″+ as well.
As skeptical as I was before, I would go as far as saying the advisories may be underdone and would say an adjustment may be necessary as most areas below 8,000′ should hit the 3-6″ range.
Montezuma County will not be as favored as Archuleta County where the totals will be altitude driven. Mancos should do better than Cortez.
Aztec to Farmington should be in the 2-4″ range.
Here is the model run, the 5″ could be anywhere within a couple of miles from the airport.
You can clearly see the model drops off right around Purgatory, I do not expect this to be a big deal up there, that being said, the high resolution of this model tends to underdo the amounts that fall up there because of the terrain difference between the Animas and Needles. We’ll see.
Heavier snow will be on the increase from due south to north after 9 am. For those of you south of 160 let us know when it really gets going, based on what I am seeing on the future radar, you will know.