5 am

There were no major changes in the models, the GFS is more in line with the Euro than it was yesterday so I will allow it to join the party this morning. My big concern right now is the difference in temperatures between the US models and the Euro. I believe that for most areas of La Plata County temperatures will be low enough for all snow by about 8 pm. The exception would be lower elevations below 6,500′ to the south of 160 where it might be as late as midnight. Cortez will likely be even later 2 or 3 am.  South of the Colorado border may not see accumulating snow but rather a mix. I think that covers everyone if I didn’t specifically mention you or reference you by altitude then I think you are in the clear for all snow.

I will dial things in a bit as the day goes on but the advisories issued by the NWS mimic the model output almost exactly.

Here is the overnight GFS

Here is Euro

Here are the advisories

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
401 AM MST TUE JAN 15 2019

COZ021>023-151915-
/O.EXB.KGJT.WW.Y.0004.190116T0400Z-190116T1900Z/
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF DOVE CREEK, MANCOS, DURANGO, BAYFIELD,
IGNACIO, AND PAGOSA SPRINGS
401 AM MST TUE JAN 15 2019

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON MST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET…

* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED ABOVE 6500 FEET. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.

* WHERE…FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER, ANIMAS RIVER BASIN
AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.

* WHEN…FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST WEDNESDAY.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT WITH ICY
AND SNOWPACKED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. EXPECT SNOW COVERED ROADS
AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

COZ018-151915-
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0004.190116T0400Z-190117T0400Z/
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, AND LAKE CITY
401 AM MST TUE JAN 15 2019

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. EXPECT SNOW COVERED ROADS
AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

I will be finding a place to put snow today so my sump pump doesn’t explode and I will be updating as new information comes out. As I said if there are areas I need to highlight I will dial that in a little later.

Also, there has been a huge emphasis on this second storm, I am not trying to downplay it, the truth is unless something changes it should be similar to this first storm. The hype that you are hearing or reading is simply because this first storm is not as big of a deal for the Northern and Central mountains, the second storm will be bigger for them, and most forecasters in the state live and breath everything that happens there.

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