You can literally drive yourself nuts when snow levels are so borderline for so many people. I feel pretty confident near to or above 7,000′. But I am not confident between 6,500-6,700. You would not think it could make that big of a difference but this is one those situations where Skyridge/Hillcrest, Timberline/Songbird could get snow and Durango downtown could get twice as much rain as snow. It could go the other way but the short-term models have been trending faster and warmer with the storm. Faster has me puzzled, that could be the difference. Either way, they are inconsistent which worries me.
Hopefully, the short term models have it wrong, the Euro came in with all snow as did the morning GFS, albeit a little lighter.
Here is the afternoon WRF showing total liquid output
The key is going to be the best model available on the planet: Look outside (Step One). If it starts raining early Downtown, say 6 pm, this model run will likely verify with the mostly rain/snow mix. On the other hand, if it starts snowing around 7 pm, heavier amounts can be expected. Again this is using downtown Durango as a benchmark.
As I said, for higher elevations it is a much different story.
Durango below 6,700: 1-3″
3-6″: Durango above 6,700′, Bayfield, Mancos Tecolote area above 7,200′, Hermosa Pagosa.
5-9″ Edgemont Ranch, Durango Hills ‘ Edgemont Highlands, Los Ranchitos, Enchanted Forest area, Forest Lakes, Bear Creek, Timberdale, Falls Creek, Shenandoah, Trappers, Breen area above 7,300’.
6-10″ Hesperus above 7,800′, Durango Ridge Ranch, Dwest 1&2, Lake Durango and CR125, Vallecito, Lemon, Rafter J, Glacier/Rockwood,
8-14″ Mayday, Wolf Creek, Purgatory
I may update later if I see something exciting.