Morning model update for tonight’s storm

10:00 am

Before I get to that, I  am constantly amazed how little we get out these storms, relatively speaking. This storm is crashing into the Sierra, Ski Resorts above 7,000′ from Tahoe to Mammoth above are expected to receive 3-7, FEET of snow. With “wind gusts up to 135 mph, gradually diminishing to 100 mph”.

Now, onto our little storm…

I am liking some of the things I am seeing, and am not liking some of the things I am seeing. Areas below 6,500 may struggle with snow again. I expect a bit of relief from the wet and heavy above 7,000 feet, but I still expect dense snow between 6,500-7,000. Big Pacific storms are wet, the only time they turn into a “perfect storm” for us is when an Arctic airmass finds a way to get involved from the north but usually retrograding in from the northeast.

The GFS is trying to hug the western county for higher totals as is the NAM short term model, while I do think some of these areas will stand out, I like how the high-resolution WRF looked this morning. It actually favors all snow in town.  I am going to use the liquid precipitation output because it is easier to show you the distribution. After that, I will post the County map with a link so you can zoom in. Then the snow map for those who don’t like converting. 10-1 is the safest bet however I am expecting about 12.5-1 for Purgatory and Telluride and 14-1 for Wolf Creek.

Liquid equivalent storm total

captureliquid

If the next run is like this I will be highlighting all of the mid elevations on the west side, for the highest amounts.

 

Here is the county map, sorry they scanned it crooked, it wasn’t me.

Screenshot 2019-01-17 at 9.16.05 AM (1).png

High-Resolution zoom county map

Snow output of the WRF

Screenshot 2019-01-17 at 8.57.40 AM.pngsnow

Looks like a repeat to me.

I will update after the Euro and afternoon suite of short term models come out should be by 2 or so.

 

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One thought on “Morning model update for tonight’s storm

  1. Doug Hunderman

    Thursday night 6 pm, it’s snowing, Mesa Vista Estates, between Edgemont Highlands and Dgo Hills, appr 7800 ft., 31.6 degrees.

    Doug

    >

    Like

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