10:20 am
This storm was not really meant for us. As I have said all along it is very/was very much one of those storms where we don’t expect much, but it comes through with such conviction, usually a temporary whiteout, briefly heavy snow and this going on for a short time then you think, maybe, just maybe this is going to be a big storm. Then it ends and that was it. That is very typical of some of these NW flow storms, they are always in a hurry to jump over and hook up with other areas of low pressure from New Mexico to Eastern Colorado, then they march across the country and get named by the “Weather” Channel and they all live happily ever after.
A funny thing happened on the way to Durango, this storm (this low) has been eyeing a couple other lows that are wanting to develop and deepen, but they are a little further south than anticipated. The model I rely on a lot on the day of a storm’s arrival, picked up on that movement this morning, which changes the trajectory of the precipitation slightly. Even with this, we are just going to go from practically nothing to a little something, and that is only if this model is correct. This is the type of storm that has a pretty good chance of leaving something behind. So I would rate it a medium chance on my “leftover index” that this is not a one and done storm.
Downtown Durango and Bayfield as well as areas below 6,500′ should stay in the 1-3″ range. Most mid-elevations (above 7,300′) and the North Valley could get 2-5″. Purgatory should get 3-6″. Mayday could see 5-9″. Telluride, Red Mountain to Ouray 6-12+”. Wolf Creek should see 8-12+”.
This is not going to be wet heavy snow, it may start that way but it will transition quickly to a 15-1 ratio.
Ahead of the front, there is at least one shortwave trough that could get things going pretty quickly this afternoon. However, the trough is in a strengthening phase which could delay things a bit. The best guidance I have tells me sometime after 12 or 1pm for north of Purgatory and after 2pm (likely before rush hour) for everyone else.
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