Winter Part 2

Technically it has only been 5 days since the last snow, but I know my followers and I can hear your thoughts and concerns that Winter is done. I haven’t written a thing on the website since Monday but I assure you I have been busy behind the scenes looking at every model run and if you can just get through a little longer I think you will be happy with what is coming.

The Coming Cold

The cold air isn’t here yet, not in Durango not in Colorado not even in the Midwest. You heard me correctly, the cold air has not arrived. I know I have heard people talk about how cold it is around here lately especially with the wind, but let’s look at January so far. Below is the month to date temperatures for January for the United States so far. This shows how much of the United States has been ABOVE average.

screenshot 2019-01-26 at 10.44.14 am

Yellows, orange, red and brown indicate how many degrees above normal it has been.

Let’s compare that what is coming.

eps_t2m_168h_northamer_1

This shows how many degrees below average in celsius

Here is a look at how this evolves

Monday morning

mon

Notice the frigid temps in pink in Ontario. These are actual temperatures (F) match the color on the map to guide on the right.

 

Wednesday morning

wed

Thursday morning

thurs

Let’s zoom in on this these are actual temps Thursday morning at 5 am.

thurszoom

Certain areas of the midwest will be nearly 50 degrees below average, which is literally off the chart.thursdayanom

The temperatures will moderate from time to time, but the reason I started with showing you the above average January temps was to contrast that what is coming in the long term

Here are the average temperature anomalies through March 11.

march11

The takeaway for us is blue=below average temperatures as a whole.

Here is the snowfall forecast, don’t get too caught up on the amounts. The best way to read this is that there should be an active southern storm track.

march11snow

Birthday Snow?

My birthday is February 4th, and I demand snow on birthday every year, it can be the day before or the day after because I know storms get delayed or speed up. I always start with the premise it is going to snow then I look at the models and start tracking it.

The Euro is updating so we will start with the GFS. It is showing a decent storm moving in Monday morning February 4th.

gfsbdaymorn

All said and done Tuesday Morning the 5th here are the totals.

screenshot 2019-01-26 at 11.41.38 am  snow

I can live with that.

Here is the Canadian

screenshot 2019-01-26 at 11.45.15 am snow

The Canadian showing its flaws with low resolution.

The latest Euro showing it arriving Sunday, February 3rd

eurobdy

And it does this!

eurbdysnow

Nice!

You know the drill a lot can change between now and then blah blah blah. But model consistency 10 days out is a good thing and besides, it’s my birthday so it must happen!

Now that there is something to track I will be posting more regularly. Remember, if you’re traveling east take your warm socks!

 

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