The new run of the Euro is out and it is going crazy with the pattern change and oh what a stormy pattern it shows. The GFS is having issues, given its track record, it is no surprise. A quick look at the MJO forecast tells me it is an outlier compared to the other models.
The Euro is not without issues. This is about the time period (6-8 days out) where the Euro is usually guilty of making a couple storms into one big one, with this particular run it shows snow starting on Saturday and going on and off in waves through Monday night. If the trend continues it will take a few days to dial in the details of the starting and stopping, and how many storms (if any) we will be dealing with. If you are keeping track this is the 3rd consecutive run of the Euro and the Canadian showing decent to great storms in that time period. Every run from now on that has decent snow will increase my confidence.
I am not going to get too deep back into the MJO right now, but you don’t have to know anything about it to recognize these two models have a different idea of where the weather is headed over the next 14 days.
Here is the GFS, it shows a highly amplified Phase 7 (don’t even worry what that means) just follow the green highlighted line with black dots and notice that it goes toward that number 7.
Almost every other model right now is similar to the Euro below it is very different.
This green line is going towards the center which indicates the “null phase” in other words the MJO is not expected to influence our weather. If you want more information on the MJO click here: The MJO
I am hearing more comparisons to the 2009-2010 winter with the US cold outbreak. One thing I have not talked about a lot is another factor in winter called the Arctic Oscillation (AO), if I get some time I may do an entire post on it, for now, know that a negative Arctic Oscillation usually translates to colder and snowier periods. Here is the forecast for the AO.
Follow the larger circles they are the mean of the Euro’s ensemble members (the Euro Ensemble is comprised of a number of “mini” you see them here is smaller colored circles. The first large circle is today, you see it shows us ticking up for two more days then we start going back into negative territory, further negative than we have been -3.25. Below -2 would be a strong negative (cold) influence.
Enough nerdy stuff, but whenever I get a chance I like to show you how many factors go into the weather, many more than you ever hear about, there are about a dozen other things I look at. But let’s move on to that crazy(?) Euro run.
This is the Euro’s latest take on the snow between next Saturday 2/2 and Tuesday 2/5. People have already talked to me about traveling so I am going to show you regional, state, then local.
Regional: In California, this is the 9 day total
State: The snow between now and Saturday is inconsequential so for all intents and purposes this is the snow total between Saturday and Tuesday.
Stay tuned, hopefully, we will see more of this!