On Wednesday I mentioned models have come together that something is coming, however, they are still undecided on snow levels and snow amounts. That has not changed.
The closer we get to the storm arriving the more short term models come in to play. With the storm arriving in the overnight hours early Sunday morning, we can get our first glance at the NAM and what it is thinking on the first storm. The NAM is low resolution and warm biased. If you remember on the 17th (the Chamber event night) virtually every model had rain to start at lower elevations and it came in as snow, I am not saying that will happen this time I am just saying it is tricky dealing with elevations.
So let’s compare the Canadian model a long term low-resolution model to the NAM a short term low-resolution model and compare what they expect from the first storm (only) for snow. This is through Sunday evening.
First the NAM
It is showing a mostly mix below about 7,300 feet.
Now we move onto the Canadian, if you have been following the last couple of days you know the Canadian has been blowing up, at least it is consistent.
Much different, by the way, the Canadian loves the second storm just as much (it is too early to compare both storms using the NAM because it only predicts out 84 hours).
Here is the Canadian for the two storm total.
The purpose of comparing the two models is just to show you a lot can change before the storms arrive. It may be Saturday morning before everything comes together.
The Euro for some reason is not letting me save the output by state so I am leaving it off because it is too difficult to read. Hopefully, everything will be back to normal tomorrow.
The good news is every model shows 10-20 inches for Purgatory.