4 pm
Warnings and Advisories first. My thoughts and forecasts are at the end.
COZ021-022-060600-
/O.NEW.KGJT.WW.Y.0010.190206T0300Z-190207T0600Z/
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CORTEZ, DOVE CREEK, MANCOS, DURANGO,
BAYFIELD, AND IGNACIO
255 PM MST TUE FEB 5 2019
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 PM MST WEDNESDAY…
* WHAT…MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BECOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.
* WHERE…FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER AND ANIMAS RIVER
BASIN.
* WHEN…FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST WEDNESDAY.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY TO UNDER A MILE AT
TIMES. ICY TO SNOW PACKED ROADWAYS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
TRACTION.
COZ023-060600-
/O.EXB.KGJT.WS.W.0003.190206T0300Z-190207T0600Z/
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF PAGOSA SPRINGS
255 PM MST TUE FEB 5 2019
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM
MST WEDNESDAY…
* WHAT…A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SWITCHING TO MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW THIS EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS COULD GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35
MPH AT TIMES.
* WHERE…SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.
* WHEN…FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST WEDNESDAY.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AS VISIBILITY
WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN HALF A MILE AT TIMES. ICY TO SNOW
PACKED CONDITIONS WILL REDUCE TRACTION ON AREA ROADWAYS.
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF RIO BLANCO, COLUMBINE, HAHNS PEAK,
TOPONAS, ASPEN, VAIL, SNOWMASS, CRESTED BUTTE, TAYLOR PARK,
MARBLE, BUFORD, TRAPPERS LAKE, RIDGWAY, GLADE PARK, TELLURIDE,
OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
255 PM MST TUE FEB 5 2019
…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST
THURSDAY…
* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO
24 INCHES EXPECTED. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.
* WHERE…PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST, SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO.
* WHEN…FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AT TIMES.
HEAVY SNOW RATES AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO LESS
THAN A HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES. ICY TO SNOW PACKED ROADWAYS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE TRACTION.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL, KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
I like the thought behind the advisories and warnings that were updated this afternoon. I updated my forecast amounts and added some categories. The later the snow starts the better tonight, the models have struggled all day with timing but have been generally consistent with temps and amounts. If you missed my last update I explained that this is a much colder storm so we are not going to see the wet dense heavy snow this time. It will be nice powder. There will likely be some heavy bands snow, not knowing where those are going to set up leads me to some wider ranges in my forecasted amounts.
Aztec 1-3″
Cortez and Ignacio Red Mesa area 2-4″
Durango, Bayfield, Mancos, Hermosa, 3-5″
Dolores, DRR, DWests, Rafter, Forest Lakes, Edgemont, Falls Creek, Breen above 7,200 5-8″
Pagosa, Rockwood, Glacier, Hesperus above 7,800′ 6-9″
Mayday, Lemon, 240 corridor at or above 8,000′ Vallecito, Telluride, Purgatory 8-12″
Wolf Creek 12-20+”
I am sure I will be up early to track this. You may want to stay off the passes between midnight and noon tomorrow (if they can keep them open). Winds at pass level could gust 50 or higher, even low elevations will reach 30+ mph.
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