Monday and the Valentines Day storm

Early Monday morning a quick moving, gusty, stand-up storm will blow through the area, there is still some question as to how much could fall, I think the maximum upside above 9,000 feet is around 3 inches with 0-2 inches for everyone else. This is a cold storm and SLR’s (snow- to- liquid ratios) will average 16-1 or higher requiring very little moisture to produce snow. It will look pretty bad when it hits, but it won’t last long. I am keeping an eye on it, but at this time I have no reason to believe it is going to stick around very long.

The models have been consistent in moving a moisture-laden storm into our area late Wednesday or early Thursday. This storm will contain subtropical air that was swept up into a closed low. These usually start all snow, then snow levels rise as the deeper core of the storm arrives. How high that snow level goes is still up for debate and will greatly affect snow totals. The Euro has had the snow levels slightly lower than the GFS. If this storm comes in slightly cooler than anticipated snow totals could increase everywhere.

I always preach consistency when tracking these storms here are the last 4 runs from the GFS. I decided to just stick with snow output and they don’t take into consideration any melting. Remember we are just looking for consistency not necessarily the totals. But the totals are up until Friday morning.

 

Saturday afternoon run

sat18zgfs

Saturday night run

sun00z.png

Overnight run

sun06zgfs

Latest this morning

sun12zgfssnow

The biggest difference with the last 2 runs is that they had the storm warmer. The GFS has not had any consistency to speak of for days in regards to what the snow levels will be. It varies between 6500 feet (and lower) to 8,000 feet (and higher). It is still too early to tell, but if we just want beneficial moisture and more snow to ski on, then things are looking very encouraging.

The Canadian is as overly optimistic as ever, more than likely ridiculously optimistic, I am going to leave it off for now.

Here are the last 4 runs from the Euro. Keep in mind the GFS runs twice as often as the Euro so looking at the last 4 runs of the Euro is the same as comparing the last 8 runs of the GFS.

Euro Friday night

sat00zeuro

Euro Saturday midday run

sat12zeuro

Euro last night

sun00zeuro

Latest Euro through Friday morning.

sun12zeurothroufriama

This surprised me a bit, but what is happening here is a piece of energy holds back until Friday night, so by late Saturday it looks like this.

eurosun12zthroughSaturday.png

Which is line with the other Euro runs for totals. These are the types of things the models have to figure out.

I am sure you have read about another storm after this one. It is very uncertain at this point. The models have gone from something major to nothing to something later. I say we get through this one, or at least get to the point that it is on the way before we look at the next one. Stay tuned for changes.

 

 

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