1:30 pm

Heavier precipitation is on the way. The snow so far has been a surprise with many areas reporting 4 or more inches since about 8:30 this morning. For some areas, another foot or more is on the way. For other areas, a combination of rain and snow will add up to a slushy mess.

Seemingly every 6 hours the HiRes model flips back and forth on snow levels. The afternoon run of that model has just come out and it is showing more rain than snow this evening at elevations below 7,000 feet.

I think we will likely stay cold enough for all snow above 7,200 feet which will lead to an additional 8-15 inches in those areas. I am THIS close to saying that areas between 6,500-7,000 feet still get 4-10″. I guess I just said it.

Here is the morning Euro showing what it expected from 5 am this morning until tomorrow.

Here was the GFS for the same time period, it has always been warmer but this is the best run we have seen so far from it.

Here was the morning WRF I shared earlier today

Then the afternoon run came out and looked like this. This what it had for accumulations between 11 am today and Friday morning

The one thing we have going for us is the same model projected the temperature at the airport to be 34 degrees at 1 pm. It was actually 30.

All of the models show the heaviest snow has yet to fall and things will start getting dicey before dark.

As I mentioned yesterday, there are several colder storms on the way and I will start covering those on Friday. My advice is to sit this one out, there will likely be numerous accidents between 5 pm and midnight tonight, stay inside where it is safe.

If the NWS does upgrade the Advisory to a Warning for Durango to Pagosa in the afternoon forecast package, I will chime in later today.

 

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