Storm 1: Sunday Through Tuesday

 

I don’t even know where to start, the first system should move in after dark, this first system is going to be a series of waves that a very difficult to time, there will be periods of light and heavy snow, at the moment it looks like light snow will dominate the area until Monday afternoon when a reinforcing strong wave comes with another one Tuesday morning. The models are trying to decide where to put the heaviest bands they have been back and forth between western La Plata and all of Archuleta County. Things should wind down late Tuesday or early Wednesday for 12-18 hours before what is beginning to look like a bigger storm will come in. There is some uncertainty on this one, so I am only going to talk about the first one or now.

I mentioned this morning that this storm is going to be perfectly efficient at making snow.  The lowest elevations should enjoy 17-1 snow ratios. Slightly higher above 7,000 feet. Because of this, we will have to revert back to the precipitation output from the models.  Multiply by the numbers in your area by 17 to convert the liquid. Sometimes I forget to mention that you match the colors on the chart to numbers on the graph to the right to determine which value each color represents.

Here is a regional view of what the latest Euro is expecting between now and Wednesday morning.

Screenshot 2019-02-17 at 12.41.18 PM  Screenshot 2019-02-17 at 12.41.45 PM

In this case, the heavier bands are coming into eastern La Plata and all of Archuleta Counties.

As I mentioned timing the waves and determining where the heavy bands set up is nearly impossible. Based on what I am seeing the NWS point forecasts are still too low.

I can only give a wide range of totals for what to expect at the moment. This is for the first system ending late Tuesday early Wednesday.

Farmington 2-5″

Aztec 3-6″

Cortez and Ignacio 4-7″

Durango, Bayfield, Mancos 7-12″

Wolf Creek 18-28″

Pagosa, and ALL other areas 12-20″

Tomorrow I may be able to narrow down some key areas, but with a long term event like this, a lot can change.

Things should get going this evening, the latest short term model is back and forth on how heavy this is going to start,  so be ready for anything. Also, there will be lulls, don’t mistake a lull for the end because we should see snow through Tuesday afternoon /evening. The next storm is better organized and if everything comes together, it should roll in late Wednesday or early Thursday and stick around until late Friday or early Saturday and it could bring heavier snow than this first storm.

 

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One thought on “Storm 1: Sunday Through Tuesday

  1. Steve Smith

    It’s been snowing on the Sunnyside Mesa on CR215 since 3PM. Started as small flakes now turning to medium fluffy ones. Light snow so far with little accumulation in the first hour. The snow clouds were not visible on weather radar.

    Like

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