And now we come to my least favorite part of a storm cycle, the end. It is not that it is ending that makes it my least favorite part, but it’s the uncertainty that goes with that. The models do not ever handle this handoff well. By handoff I mean our storm is going to morph into a larger storm after it hibernates in southeast Colorado then it will move into the midwest and do its thing.
There are a dozen scenarios of how this could likely play out, but I think it will go through in pieces with waves of energy coming through, throughout the day with periods of heavy and light snow with a few to several or in some location many more inches falling mainly under the waves as they come through. There is a chance the Bayfield to Forest lakes area could get some snow but they won’t make up for what everyone got to the west. Pagosa and Wolf Creek have a better chance because those waves will reach them later in the afternoon. The final piece should come through this evening-overnight from west to east.
I don’t have a handle on whether or not we will see a “leftover event”. But, as the winds change behind the front Telluride-Ouray Red Mountain may get hit, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some advisories posted detailing that.
Here is another look at the Colored Water Vapor Imagery (CWV). Green is moist orange is dry. You can see darker green pieces in northeast Arizona that are trying to eject out.
I hope I will get some more definitive information when the morning suite of models come out. I expect to have something more out about noon.