Weekend Storm

1 pm

The next storm looks like it will arrive late on Thursday. At the moment, it looks like it will be insignificant for us. It is a dry storm dropping down from the north across the Western Slope. Telluride might squeeze a couple of inches out of it but for the rest of us, for now anyway, it just looks like a dusting or less.

On late Saturday or early Sunday, a batch of Pacific moisture looks to move into our area and things could get interesting. The models have not resolved the placement of the very cold air that will be to our northeast.

Saturday night 11pm

Screenshot 2019-02-24 at 12.54.10 PM.png

You can see that very cold airmass over Minnesota. The 492mb indicates arctic air. The leading edge of cold air is shown in northeast Colorado where you can see numerous isobars stacked up. To our southwest in northern Arizona you the rain in green which extends back to the California coast.

The models are going to struggle with this all week long which could lead to erratic app forecasts. If you are rooting for all snow you will want to the see the cold airmass shift a little further to the southwest. The question is will it happen before the moisture arrives. If you are not rooting for snow, you are automatically rooting for rain or a mixture. I don’t think that would be a good situation, so think before you choose teams. I am glad we have a few days of a break but I prefer snow to rain or mix every single time.

With the caveat that all of this can and probably will change here are what the GFS and Euro say to expect for snow over the next 10 days.

Euro

ecmwf_tsnow_colorado_41

GFS

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_colorado_41

I left off the Canadian because I don’t want to give anyone a heart attack. It is interesting how much ignored the Canadian last storm cycle and at the end of the day, it may have been more accurate than the GFS. Time will tell.

I will be tracking this thing all week because the Canadian model is seeing something (right or wrong) that the other models are not.

Stay tuned.

 

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