10 am

The morning models agree on the timing for the main impact of the storm. After consulting the short term models, if they are correct most of the activity will occur between 2 pm and 8 pm.

Here is the GFS snapshot

11 am – 5 pm

Here is 5 pm to 11 pm

The NAM model breaks it down a little further after a bit of lull from 11 to 2 pm it picks up considerably between 2 -5 pm. I picked this because things slowed down at 11 am at Purgatory just as this model predicted.

2 pm to 5 pm

5 pm to 8 pm

The Euro largely agrees with the GFS.

I don’t always like to rely wholly on models when I am analyzing storm, if you have been following me for a while you will remember 12 step process for diagnosing an incoming storm in Durango

Snow totals are largely going to depend on timing, aside from just looking at the models the different surface map sources I use are all in disagreement, this is frustrating because I can’t confirm the timing. I am not going to break down every map but looking at them you should notice they are all completely different and are all supposed to be displaying the same storm.

Map One

Map Two

Map Three

Frustrating for sure.

Reports will be helpful this afternoon as soon as conditions change wherever you are.

I will update if I see something in the afternoon models that drastically changes our course.

 

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