There are a number of reasons I don’t like Daylight Savings Time, but one of the biggest things I don’t like about it is the weather and weather models don’t abide by it. Weather models depending on which one you choose output data 1-24 times a day generally, there are monthly weekly and bi-weekly, and bi-monthly models as well, but the ones that are used most frequently are 2-4 times a day. They always lag real time and they are always on GMT so whereas yesterday we were on the 5’s (am/pm mst) and 11’s (mst) for model generation times today until November 4th, we are now on 6’s (a/m mdt) and 12’s. Simply put I get data an hour later in the day, this makes it difficult to get timely information out to everyone. Considering I use the Euro in 85% of my forecasts, and considering its data takes the longest to process this is always a problem because now its closer to 1 pm before I can analyze it.
OK, enough complain talk, there is nothing I can do about it anyway.
Here is the first watch issued. Good job on this one, they will make this into a warning and tighten up the timing for an official start and end. They also said they are going to be “watching closely” what they refer to as our foothills, what I call our mid-elevations, to potentially add highlights (advisories or warnings). The short term discussion from the NWS was written by one of two guys that I really feel do a spectacular job and I wish they would write more. Hopefully, they will be active this week. One is the top operations guy. They are rarely the ones interviewed by the press.
Here is the Winter Storm Watch that ends on Tuesday before the next system gets involved.
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
355 AM MDT SUN MAR 10 2019
…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 16
INCHES MAY OCCUR WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES.
* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…TRAVEL COULD BE DIFFICULT ALONG HIGHWAY 550
NORTH OF DURANGO TO SILVERTON, ALONG HIGHWAY 145 NORTHEAST OF
DOLORES AND ACROSS HIGHWAY 160 BETWEEN DURANGO AND PAGOSA
SPRINGS. THIS INCLUDES COAL BANK, MOLAS, LIZARD HEAD AND
I think the all snow level is going to be around 7,500ish feet on this one, with a mostly snow around 7,250. I will get into that later today. Late Tuesday a very cold storm will integrate with this one and will elevate snow ratios into that magic 15 to 17-1 area. Which is why this watch only goes through Tuesday.
Stay tuned, next update around 1 pm today.