More Questions Than Answers

12:30 pm

The models are all over the place for precipitation amounts for the Monday through Thursday event.

With the Euro, the evening runs have been less ambitious than the morning runs.

Here is this morning’s run, the newest.

1euro12z

Last night’s

2euro0z.png

Saturday morning

3euro12zsat

Friday evening

4euro0zsat

Friday morning

5friday12euro

So here is what I do know. The model has been gradually trending down overall. It has also been ending the event earlier on Thursday (for most of us) instead of Thursday night. It has also had roughly 2/3 of the precipitation falling during the warmer portion lasting through Tuesday evening. Snow levels start low Monday morning then raise throughout the day. On Tuesday the snow levels have been varying how late they stay high (8,000+), before tanking sometime on Tuesday or after midnight early Wednesday morning. Snow ratios will go high on Wednesday.

I want to see more consensus on snow levels for elevations below 8,500 feet today and tomorrow but until I do, I have little to go on, the Euro this morning raised the levels again for Tuesday.

For Purgatory I am looking for 8-12″  by Tuesday night, then an additional 5-10″ by Thursday evening. Telluride 3-6″ by Tuesday evening then an additional 10-15″ by Thursday evening. For Wolf Creek (you should not get missed this time) 18-28″ by Friday morning.

For other areas, I am fairly confident 2-6″ of snow will accumulate during the cold portion of the storm after midnight Wednesday morning until Thursday afternoon. This number could become severely inflated by up to a foot additional depending on snow levels on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

 

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