Don’t Let The Blue Skies Fool You!

3/20/19

I gotta admit a couple of pleasant days in a row was a nice change, however, I am going to appreciate the 1 inch or so of liquid precipitation on Thursday and Friday.

Brief heavy snow is possible in many areas early tomorrow morning generally between 5 am and 10 am. This may catch a few people off with the warm  (normal) temps we have this afternoon. Snow levels should start out between 6,500-7,000 feet but will quickly rise, it appears they will top out just over 8,200 feet by 3 pm. Thursday evening snow levels will drop again and snow will fall down to 6,500 feet again by Friday morning. By midday Friday snow showers will be light and mostly above 7,400 feet.

Obviously, this makes it difficult to predict snow accumulation forecasts below the all snow elevation (8,200 feet) because of the melting. Here is the total liquid equivalent precipitation forecast between Thursday morning and late Friday night.

Screenshot 2019-03-20 at 12.21.04 PM  Screenshot 2019-03-20 at 12.38.08 PM

This is similar to what we have seen with the “smaller” storms this season.

 

Here is the same model showing the snow forecast based on 10 to 1 ratios

 

Screenshot 2019-03-20 at 12.21.34 PM  Screenshot 2019-03-20 at 12.38.36 PM

I think Durango and Bayfield could see 1-4 inches accumulate as snow in the morning by 9 or 10 am. That range accounts for the slight altitude differences between, for example,  Escalante and Timberline. 3-5 inches for most mid-elevations by late morning before becoming more of a mix in the late morning or afternoon.  There will be significant melting of any new snow while it falls below 8,500 feet in the afternoon, then in the evening snow could pick up again in all areas.

According to the models the elevations above 8,500 will see 10-12 inches of snow. Lemon and areas nearby will be interesting to see how high the totals go because the Euro is painting a heavier band right over that area. 80% of the storms this year the models and the NWS were too low for Purgatory and Telluride. I like the 10-15″ range for all 3 resorts.

The only other thing to point out is that the models have been slowing this storm, it may delay the arrival in the morning.

The next storm should visit us on Sunday, at the moment it appears it will be smaller and colder, then another storm late next week. Interesting to note the 46 day Euro shows snow all through April, yes, even at lower elevations.

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