I mentioned that the storm was trending towards a later arrival and the models slowed it again overnight. This gives me less confidence that the storm will start as all snow in lower elevations. The midnight run of the HiRes future radar shows precip rolling into the Durango area after 8 am, slightly earlier in Montezuma County. I am also seeing conditions that would favor thunderstorm development this afternoon.
I am going to wait until the 6 am model runs come out before I decide to increase or decrease any precipitation totals. I hope to have that out by 9 am.
Here is the current surface map (as best as anyone can tell).