8:30 am

I have mentioned before that strong lifting in a storm and convective activity can cause heavy snow which leads to rapid cooling and lower snow levels. This morning the temperature at the house was around 39 degrees, at about 7:30 it started snowing, as it got heavier the temps dropped accordingly as seen on the following graphs.

I point this out to show what is possible. This morning the HiRes WRF model is showing very interesting this afternoon. It shows a very strong wave coming through this afternoon, I am not necessarily ready to sign off on it yet, but it sure is interesting.

This future radar at 1 pm, notice the negatively tilted band of thunderstorms to our SW (yellow and red blotches).

At 2 pm It is moving from SW to NE, check out the intense snow mixing in, in Montezuma County.

At 2 pm here are the projected snow totals so far

Here is 4 pm future radar, as the wave is moving out of La Plata County

And here are the projected snow totals by 4 pm

The 5 there is at DRO, also check out the 240 corridor up through Vallecito with purples and pinks. Also notable is the Dwests, Lake Durango Rafter J, Shenandoah to Long Hollow area with the purples.

Again, I don’t have a tremendous amount of confidence with this scenario, but when I see a model run like this, from this High-Resolution Model from this 6 am model run I have to mention it, because it has been so good with convection in the past. Some of you will remember that it is has been within minutes of accuracy for Thunderstorm activity in the late spring.

At about 2:00 pm the noon run will be out so I will probably post again. Check back then.

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