5:30 am

There was nothing significant in the models overnight, I still expect light scattered showery precipitation today and this afternoon, there is a chance of a thunderstorm developing after 10 am or so. If that happens the precipitation could get a little heavier. I will be double checking the new model runs around that time to see if there are any areas that stand out for development.

I have gotten several questions about the pattern change I mentioned in yesterday’s post. What I am seeing is the potential for a series of several colder storms starting around Thursday of next week. Some cold enough for snow at 6500′. There is time between the storms a couple of days or so. Details will be sketchy for a while yet, but I just wanted to get out there because people are not thinking about snow right now, and between now and then we could even have a couple days of average to slightly above average temperatures. The long term models were showing this activity really picking up after the 13th through the end of the month.

Looking at the 15-day run of the Euro ensembles and the 16-day GFS run for snowfall it makes me take notice.

Euro 51 model ensemble mean run for total snow through April 18th.

GFS 16 day through midnight April 19th.

I certainly would not bet the house on this, but when you have model similarity this far out you have to keep an eye on it since people will likely be traveling over the next 2 to 3 weeks.

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