Weather Withdrawal For The Weather Guy

11 am

Man, I hate these shoulder seasons. The models struggle more, there is nothing to write about for the most part and I get a little weather withdrawal. The clouds were a bit of a change of pace today, but clouds without precipitation reminds me of growing up in the Midwest and it is just depressing, not that the Midwest itself is depressing, but the gray skies of the Midwest are.

We will get a chance of showers this evening, overnight and throughout the day tomorrow so that is something I guess. We will get a second chance of some precipitation on Sunday. At this point, I don’t expect travel disruptions but there is still enough time that it could change.

The biggest event will be tomorrow in the central and southern States. I could see the potential for a major tornado outbreak tomorrow from Texas through Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, Missouri and SW Iowa. This does not affect us directly but it is relevant with all of my followers who travel that way during a holiday week and for those who have families in those areas.

Below I have circled in black where the severe outbreak will peak tomorrow afternoon. The higher the color matches on the scale to the right, the greater the incidence of severe storms and tornadoes.

Capture

Obviously, the reds and purples are the most dangerous areas. This is pretty typical this time of year. There is a second tornado season that people are less familiar with which happens in November. In the spring they occur because of the late season cold fronts meet the warm air on plains, in the fall they occur when early season cold fronts meet the warmer air on the plains.

Long Term Outlook

We had slightly warmer than normal temps lately, but I continue to like the slightly below normal temps for that period.

Here are the Euro’s temps through the end of May (below average).

eps_t2m_1104h_conus_185.png

The Euro also shows very slightly above normal precipitation.

 

NOAA’s long term model shows average temps for our area.

cfs_anom_t2m_noram_2019041600_t45

This is significant because the NOAA model is typically incapable of ever seeing cold air anywhere on the continent.

Back in December here is what the same model saw for the winter (Jan-Mar)

nooawinter

Here is how the winter verified (Jan-Mar).

actual

Nearly 100% opposite to what their model was predicting. That is why I am skeptical when people send me a link to the NOAA seasonal outlooks.

 

 

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