Messy Monday-Wednesday

Noon Sunday

A series of storms are going to come through and converge starting tomorrow before exiting the area late Wednesday.

On Monday afternoon snow levels will be slightly over 10,000 feet but may lower with heavier showers. By 11 pm Monday snow levels should drop to 9,000 feet and 8,200 feet by 6 am on Tuesday, by Tuesday afternoon back up to around 9,300 feet. We may see a bit of a lull in the action on Tuesday, then things will pick back up Tuesday night and Wednesday before shutting down by Thursday morning.

At the end of the day as you will see a lot of precipitation will fall, fortunately, it does not look like it will fall all at once (it could be worse). That being said I fear enough precipitation will fall in scattered areas to trigger debris flows and some flooding. I am not trying to scare anyone, but it is a reality we are going to have to deal with which is why I am addressing it. All said and done here is the precipitation forecast ending on Thursday morning. As is usually the case, using the tomorrow mornings high-resolution run I will be able to better pinpoint areas of concern using the future radar capabilities of that model. It is a time sensitive model, in other words, it is a better same day use model than a multi-day use model. It is referred to as a meso-scale model.

Below is the Euro models precipitation output ending Thursday at 6 am. I will throw the snow on tomorrow, keeping in mind the snow will melt quickly below 11,000 feet.

Screenshot 2019-04-28 at 1.43.25 PM Screenshot 2019-03-20 at 12.38.08 PM

 

Between now and then don’t be surprised to see a few scattered showers later this afternoon and early evening.

Next update Monday around 9 am

 

 

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