Pattern Change This Week

8 am

Yesterday’s pop-up “dry” thunderstorms were a surprise. Some of them turned out to have a little moisture with them most areas got less than 1/10 of an inch of rain. I refer to these as nuisance showers-unpredictable, usually contain gusty winds from collapsing cells causing downdrafts that spread dust and pollen all over the place, usually just enough rain to mix with the dust to mess up your car. They did not show up yesterday on the future radar model forecast nor did they show up on total cloud model forecast.

This afternoon I show a couple of cells popping up late in the day between 3-8 pm. There is also a tick up in PWAT values (Precipitable Water-or the total amount of liquid measured in inches that could possibly fall over a given area). So don’t surprised if we get some scattered showers.

A cold front is currently stationary over NE Colorado.

Capture

Extending from the base of the low “L” in SE Colorado you will see what looks like a gold chain extending into New Mexico. This is called a dry line, which is just what it sounds like. This is a classic set up for severe storms in Oklahoma and Texas today especially this afternoon, storm chasers from all over the area are en route to be in position for this outbreak.

The cold front is going to retrograde and head our way until it combines with or gets pushed out by a couple of low-pressure systems to our west, we may start to feel the effects from this late Tuesday and Wednesday, the timing on this is still up in the air-models are usually too fast with these things. There are several reinforcing systems that are going to come through which will lead to an extended period of colder wet weather.  3/4 of an inch to 1 1/2 inches of rain should fall by the weekend. With higher elevations getting heavy snow. The snow level is going to fluctuate diurnally, I will follow up more on that on a day to day basis. Stay tuned it should be fun.

 

 

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