Winter Never Ends

7 am

As one system departs another is on the way, then another, then another. Occasionally I like to share the AFD (Area Forecast Discussion) from the National Weather Service. At times it is too geeky to share I say that based upon feedback from followers, other times it is just about right and does a good job of communicating the situation. Keep in mind, the AFD is written for other weather forecasters or Meteorologists to read. Here is what they said for the long term (through Friday).

.LONG TERM…(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 407 AM MDT Sat May 18, 2019

Troughs in the West are going to need to start paying rent as they
are in for the long haul. There seems to be an endless supply of
high latitude energy available to kick out then replace systems
over the Intermountain West over the next 10 days. Large scale
global patterns have been responsible for this long wave pattern.
Western Hemisphere tropical circulation phases also indicate
conditions favorable for driving the AR to the Central Coast of
NOAM.

Ensemble forecasts still favor a weak to moderate AR arriving to
California by tomorrow and the remnant moisture aiding our
precipitation pattern by late weekend into early next week. Model
trends continue to pick out this time period for another decent
shot of precipitation to our CWA. There is cold air embedded with
these systems and appears snow levels likely to drop again to 7K
level with impacts during the overnight hours. Climate outlooks
are coming true with cooler and wetter conditions likely to
dominate the remaining part of May. This should slow down the
snowmelt but will be monitoring snow…precipitation and river
levels.

On Sunday night the next closed upper low will be on our door
step and the models are suggesting that it will evolve similar to
the one currently passing overhead. Shortwave energy lifting
through followed by the trough axis will keep precip chances
around through Monday night. Even the post trough air mass will be
moist enough to result in terrain-driven convection Tuesday afternoon.

Things get complicated around mid-week with multiple shortwaves
potentially rotating around the low and the kicker right on its
heels. It will likely lead to several waves of precipitation with
breaks in between and temperatures that are cool enough for snow
in the high country Monday through Thursday.

Translation, stormy pattern ahead for us as I have been talking about. What about Memorial Day Weekend you ask? At the moment, it looks dry on Saturday the 25th, but the models diverge after that, of course, I will be keeping an eye on that all week.

As far as the extended period goes, here is the temperature outlook between now and July 1st, note the temperature anomalies are in Celsius.

July.png

This would be between 4-6 degrees (F) below average. Enjoy the day, the next system could start to move in as early as Sunday afternoon.

 

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