The heavier precip should try to make an appearance after 8 am today. The models really want to dump the heaviest precip in eastern Utah and west of Cortez for the lower elevations. So, Dove Creek, you should be up first, let us know what is going on. The Lift created by the low will get things going in the higher elevations above 8,000 feet in La Plata and Montezuma Counties, Mayday followers should keep us informed. There is some question in my mind how far north the snow will make it, but the models seem confident. The low is in East Central Arizona right now.
NWS just issued a Freeze Watch from 10 pm Thursday through Friday morning:
Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin-
321 AM MDT Thu May 23 2019
…FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
The National Weather Service in Grand Junction has issued a
Freeze Watch, which is in effect from this evening through Friday
* LOCATIONS…Including the cities of Cortez, Dove Creek,
Mancos, Durango, Bayfield, and Ignacio.
* TEMPERATURES…As low as 28 to 32.
* TIMING…The coldest temperatures are expected early Friday
morning through sunrise.
* IMPACTS…Sensitive and budding vegetation, sprinkler systems and
swamp coolers may be impacted by sub-freezing temperatures.
A Freeze Watch means sub-freezing temperatures are possible.
These conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.
I will check in back after the morning high-resolution models come out, although they have not initialized well any morning this week.