As I had suspected the models were overconfident with the storm and moved further north. Despite this, the snowpack (snow water equivalent) has grown dramatically this week.
Here is a before and after reading from the Snotel sites.
Unfortunately, they missed the reading from Vallecito last night, fortunately, I have been tracking this and here is Wednesday night’s data with Vallecito.
These numbers are incredible, Columbus Basin in the La Platas still has 42 inches of SWE to run off, Wolf Creek has 46 inches of liquid, and Vallecito has (as of Wednesday night) 17.9 inches which represent 112% of the annual peak which should have occurred nearly 7 weeks ago. The average amount normally for May 24th is ZERO. Stump Lakes which feeds Lemon has 25.5 inches of liquid equivalent which is 139% of their average peak total.
I plan to do an update again Sunday morning, at the moment the storm coming in Monday looks slightly warmer than the last couple with higher snow levels, closer to 10,000 feet. The snow at higher elevations (including Purg) is going to cap high temperatures to the upper 40’s to around 50 this weekend, so even with the sun, it will be cool out.
Graduation tonight should go off without a hitch (at least as far as the weather is concerned) with temps in the upper 50’s to around 60.