Winter Storm Watch=Holiday Hedge

Noon

This WSW was issued overnight/early this morning. What we have here is a CYA move, I am not saying I disagree one way or another, however, despite it being nearly June, despite it being a Holiday, it is highly unlikely that this system will hit advisory criteria in the mountains which is 6-12 inches. Call it what you want, I guess but winter weather advisories for 2-5 inches above 9,000 feet don’t exist.

That being said, it doesn’t mean that it won’t snow, in fact, there is a chance of non-accumulating snow back down around 7,200′ overnight. This is a cold system, but it is not going to stick around.

Here is the wording on the WSW, they still have time to cancel it.

1153 AM MDT MON MAY 27 2019

COZ018-019-280200-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.A.0017.190528T0300Z-190528T1600Z/
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, SILVERTON, AND RICO
1153 AM MDT MON MAY 27 2019

…WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ABOVE 9000 FEET…

* WHAT…SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 9000 FEET. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* WHERE…NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS INCLUDING RED MOUNTAIN, COAL BANK, AND MOLAS PASSES.

* WHEN…FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
ALONG HIGHWAY 550.

Here is how the GFS portrays this whole thing panning out over the next 48 hour

GFS 50-STATES USA Colorado Precipitation Type (1).gif

Here are totals for the “Old” GFS

Snow

gfs48hr

Liquid

gfstp48

“New” GFS-FV3

fv3snow

Liquid

fv3

Euro snow

ecmwf48

Liquid

europrecip.png

It looks like the storm train will be diverted after Wednesday for a while, but especially in the higher elevations, we will see pop up scattered showers in the afternoon. I didn’t get a chance to mow my lawn over the weekend and probably won’t get another chance until next Sunday, it is going to be deep!

If something useful pops up in the afternoon forecast discussion I will share it.

 

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