There are some interesting scenarios in the morning high-resolution models, as I cautioned yesterday this is the type of storm that usually results in a near miss to the north of us, and cooler weather would be the biggest result of the storm.

The elephant in the room, ie, what I can’t get past on the short term model is a couple of significant thunderstorms tracking from SW to NE on a line that extends roughly from Shiprock to Durango to Vallecito that will track to the east, late this morning /early afternoon. What is interesting is the model shows significant short-lived rain near the airport resulting in a huge temperature drop, then the temps rebound, the sun comes out which churns up a few more storms in our area this afternoon. I am a bit suspicious of the first scenario for late morning, but I can’t write it off either. If it goes down it would likely be in the 10 am to 1 pm timeframe. The later afternoon activity seems more plausible, but only if the sun comes out.

It will be easier for me to do short updates on Facebook, but if something significant develops I will update the website as well.

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