Straight From The Horses Mouth

The other day I posted an update on the delayed onset of the Arizona Monsoon, one of the things I pointed out was that even if the GFS forecast I used was incorrect, it worked well to illustrate the difference between Monsoon and other weather-related events. I stand by that, it served its purpose as a tool, however, the forecast from the GFS has flopped back after a few days and now it shows a further delay in the start of the Monsoon season. Here is what NWS Phoenix had to say this morning.

” In fact, both the GFS and ECMWF keep very dry conditions over most
of the state well beyond the 7 day forecast period and out to 240
hours, suggesting the monsoon will take quite some time before it
really starts to get going. As such, POPs stay very low with only
very slight chances for a high based storm mainly east of Globe over
the weekend.”

ECMWF is the Euro model, POPs refers to precipitation chances.

Check out the below average (browns and reds) precipitation for the southwest over the next 15 days.

Euro15day

Here is a close-up version of that.

ecmwf-swus-qpf_anom_15day-3235200

If you like normal to slightly above normal temperatures with drier than normal conditions you have come to the right place.

 


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