Weekend Update/Long Term Update

Just slightly higher chances of a couple of storms Saturday and Sunday as a piece of energy moves towards the Four Corners from Arizona (Nonsoon). Beyond that warm and dry conditions return with very slight chances of mostly high elevation based pop-up showers.  Here is the 15-day precip outlook for the South West US browns indicate how far below average the precipitation forecast is.

ecmwf-swus-qpf_anom_15day-3580800

The long term is equally concerning to me as it looks to me if that trend continues through the end of August we could reach a “D-0” drought level, which technically still is not in a drought but one step below.  More of the concern, of course, is a fire starting by a dry thunderstorm or human intervention.

46-Day Outlook

ecmwf-swus-qpf_anom_46day-6172800

This is another sign that the Arizona Monsoon will be delayed and likely be an underperforming season. The Eastern Pacific is finally seeing some tropical activity, hopefully, we will get one of those storms to recurve and dump some moisture on us like the remnants Hurricane Bud did last year!

On another note, I found this very interesting from the San Juan National Forest USDA webpage page these conditions are current as of Wednesday. It is crazy to see that 15 of 33 roads and passes in the San Juan NF are closed due to snow!

As of July 3, 2019
Most roads will probably open later than usual this year due to excessive snow and avalanches. We will try to keep up with changes on this site as soon as we hear reliable information.

Most of these roads could be impassable.

Check the Colorado Avalanche Information Center website before traveling any of these roads. https://avalanche.state.co.us/

*Be aware that passes can vary with weather any time of year. Some may be slick in areas, washed out or snow covered, even if they are listed as OPEN. Please don’t go beyond where you are comfortable driving. Be safe out there!

Animas Forks – OPEN through Hurricane and California Gulch. LOTS of snow in California Gulch. Roads are narrow and muddy*
*The main road to Animas Forks is blocked by a large avalanche.

Black Bear Pass – Closed by snow
Bolam Pass – Open to Hermosa Creek crossing, Avalanche between Hotel Draw and Bolam Pass
California – OPEN
Clear Lake -OPEN to tree line (below lake)
Cinnamon Pass – Closed by snow
Corkscrew Pass – OPEN from Gladstone to pass
County Road 110 – OPEN
County Road 2 – OPEN approx. 1 mile past Eureka FLOODING is an issue, so currently down to single lane
Cunningham Gulch – OPEN to Pride of West Boarding House

Divide Road 564 – Closed by snow
Engineer Pass – Closed by snow*
Engineer Pass – Lower end to 550- Closed by snow
Eureka Gulch – OPEN to snow, could be hard to turn around
Hurricane Pass – OPEN from Gladstone to Pass
Imogene Pass – Closed by snow
Kennebec Pass – Closed by snow
La Plata Canyon (County Road 124) – OPEN to just past Lewis
Last Dollar – OPEN
Lobo Overlook – Closed by snow

Maggie Gulch – OPEN to snow, could be hard to turn around
Mineral Point – Closed by snow*
Minnehaha – Closed by snow
Minnie Gulch – OPEN to snow, could be hard to turn around
Ophir Pass – OPEN
Owl Creek Pass – Closed by snow

Picayune – Closed by snow*
Placer – Closed by snow*
Poughkeepsie – Closed by snow
Scotch Creek – Closed by snow
South Mineral Road – OPEN to campground
Stony Pass – OPEN, closed at Pole Creek crossing due to high waters
Treasure Mountain Loop – Closed by snow*
Yankee Boy Basin – OPEN

Should the situation change abruptly on way or another I will definitely post (I am not a fan of boring weather).

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