For the last 10 days or so I have started writing an update only to lose interest in what I was talking about because the weather has been so boring. Sure, we have seen a few pop-up elevation based storms but the moisture has not been abundant and we have not had a decent set up to start seeing some of those Monsoonal type of downpours in the lower elevations that many have been craving.
As you may remember the US GFS model got replaced with the “New GFS” now just known as the GFS, as if nothing changed. The problem is it has changed, and it failed on its first major assignment, Tropical Storm Barry. It is currently failing its second major assignment which is the heatwave in the east-which is all going to turn around in the next 24-48 or so hours with temps dropping to below average in the same areas that have been experiencing above-average temps. Watch below as the above-average temps in oranges and reds transition to below average temps (blues and green).
This is the Euro between this afternoon and Friday evening.
The GFS shows a huge increase in showers beginning late Monday and Tuesday with a reinforcing shot as we get into mid-week. I don’t trust the GFS right now. The Euro shows a lot of available moisture streaming in this week, but shows a bit of a struggle in putting all of the other ingredients in place for big storms at low elevations.
Monsoon type conditions are difficult to put a start date in our area, people mistake afternoon high/heat based storms for the Monsoonal recycled flow from Arizona, I have discussed this at length and don’t want to spend a lot more time on it. However, it looks like we may be drifting into a pattern where the ingredients will have a better opportunity to come together than they have so far this summer.
The Euro weekly long term (46-day outlook), continues to show drier than normal conditions but acknowledges the uptick in moisture this week as well as the coming weeks. Unfortunately, it shows the largest deficits relative to average over the Wolf Creek to Pagosa area, which is likely the most vulnerable area for fire.
We were fortunate to have such a robust Winter and a calm cool Spring. We largely avoided flooding with the drier than normal conditions but now we do need to see some precipitation especially in the mid-elevation areas.
This is usually about the time people start asking about Winter. This year, that has not been the case, I think I have had one email about next Winter even though the average first snow above 10,000 feet is usually about 7-8 weeks from now! What I am seeing right now shows a similar start to Winter as last year, a long slightly warmer than average fall through mid-December then a shift at the end of December to early January to below average temps and above average precip. September is when I usually get a little more vested into looking at Winter.
Nationally, the biggest news meteorologically speaking is the lack of Tropical development in both the Pacific and the Atlantic. I talked about this weeks ago when analyzing the 46-day precipitation run from the Euro. This doesn’t mean we won’t have tropical activity, however, it will be very difficult in the near term in what they call the Main Development Region (MDR)-which is between 10-20 north latitude and east of 70 west longitude. Instead, we will see periodic development close to the US and Latin American Coasts. Globally, there are massive pools of below-average ocean temperatures which are inhibiting Global tropical activity. There is a large pool of cool water off the East Coast that we have not seen in a while. Last winter I talked about what some Atmospheric Scientists are seeing as a change in the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation to a Cool Phase rather than the warm Phase we have been in for the 25 or so years. Here are the most recent Sea Surface Temperature anomalies.
Here is a self-explanatory chart going back to 1880 that shows the cycles of the AMO.
A cool phase or negative AMO is one of the factors that results in cooler weather for our Continent.
I enjoy hearing from people but I have a confession to make, I am not a huge fan of Facebook, I know, I know, that is how this whole thing started. I only share this because unless I am tracking some severe storms in the Summer or Winter Storms in the Winter, or if there is some type of natural disaster like a fire I am not going to be on Facebook, so if you want to contact me you can email me at anytime by clicking the contact button that I provide on every post. I apologize to those who messaged me through Facebook with time-sensitive questions.
No news is no news when it comes to me posting an update, so when you don’t hear from me, it usually means I have nothing new to highlight or talk about. Hopefully, that won’t continue to be the case.