The weather pattern began to transition last week, then the moisture got cut off but is expected to move back in over the next couple of days. Next week, it appears that things will ramp up a bit, in fact over the next three weeks I am finally seeing above-average precipitation in the long term models, then average precipitation from the last 10 days of August through roughly the first half of September.
Whenever the Herald posts a story about the weather, I get emails from people asking me my opinion. 10 days ago I wrote about the pattern changing and bringing ingredients together better for an uptick in precipitation. That seems to be happening and the models indicate that although there will be lulls here and there it should continue.
The bigger story is that the radar in Grand Junction is offline through August 3rd. Yes, the temporary radar is in place but most people don’t know how to read it because there is always noise in the raw data. So the NWS will still be able to observe our area and issue any warnings as necessary. However, the main radar that is tied into the numerical weather models, especially the short term mesoscale models will be offline so it is going to affect the model output as well as the forecast accuracy. Radar returns that are reflected on your apps will likely be affected because data will be pulled from Denver, Flagstaff, Abq, and Salt Lake.
Going back to that article, in the sixth paragraph it says “In the next few days, Durango’s best chance for rain is Thursday evening and Friday morning, he said. But the storm is expected to bring only about 0.01 inch of rain, he said.”
I don’t think I would let myself be quoted saying that, especially in an area as susceptible to flooding as the burn scar areas are, and when your mesoscale models are being affected by your radar outage.
Bottom line, be prepared for about anything at least until they get the radar back up and running on Monday. Your apps and the NWS will likely be less accurate than normal.
Still too early to talk about Winter, although, I expect that we will start seeing snow in the Euro weekly long-range (46 days) model runs before long, mid to late September snow at or above 10,000 feet is not unusual.
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We have been 4-wheeling in the high country above Silverton several times recently. Lots of snow still above 11,000 ft especially. Avalanches that have been cleared to open some of the roads were huge! There is still lots of snow and debris right beside the road in many places. I can’t imagine that those will melt before it starts to snow again up there. Beautiful time go go – lots of flowers.
Take some pictures next time you go up if you see a bunch of snow