Monday Update

I wrote this afternoon, but something came up and I forgot to send it out

Today was the nice day for the elevations.

If you have been spending any amount of time above 8,500′, today was your day. This is my fourth day in a row at Purgatory and it looks like we will make it through the day without any rain. Well, this is it. Tuesday afternoon it appears the moisture will return and afternoon showers will dominate the next few days for the high country.

There is a chance that spotty showers will return to the mid-elevation areas, as early as Tuesday afternoon. The atmosphere is going to really juice up Wednesday through Thursday night so lower elevations may get in on the action.

The models are still inconclusive for the weekend I will update again before then.

The model parameters that actually show things like future radar and storm development have been horrible this summer. The only difference between this year and last year for the models is we have a new GFS. It should not affect the other models directly,  however, it does affect the blended model solutions.

I have had the opportunity to talk to a few followers lately and from looking at my stats it looks like only 20 percent of you follow anything in the summer, I agree it is boring, but from time to time when there are pattern breaks, changes, and lulls I will try to get an update out for your viewing pleasure.

The GFS is actually showing August snow in northern Wyoming, but it is the GFS, not only that it is the new GFS, and if you have read other updates you know that while I am rooting for it, it has been a pain in the butt, hopefully, it will get some upgrades before Winter arrives!

We are just a couple weeks out from seeing more significant snow on the long-range (6 1/2 week) Euro weekly model. Here is what it is showing at the moment.

85ecmwf-conus-snow_46day-8937600

The Atmospheric Scientists that I follow are not spending a lot of time delving into the Winter yet with any sense of urgency.  From what I can gather at this point it looks like very slightly above-average temps this fall through November, with slightly below temps for December through February.  It also looks like we will be in neutral ENSO conditions (neither El Nino nor La Nina). What does that mean? Well, El Nino and La Nina are very small factors in our area’s Winter conditions overall, the biggest snow years in Durango and the mountains have been in ENSO neutral years.

 

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