Here is the latest from NWS

“Flood Watch
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
604 AM MDT Sun Aug 11, 2019

COZ019-022-112100-
/O.CON.KGJT.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-190812T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Southwest San Juan Mountains-Animas River Basin-
604 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019

…FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE 416 FIRE BURN SCAR IN NORTHWEST LA
PLATA COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING…

The Flash Flood Watch continues for  

* The 416 Fire Burn Scar in Northwest La Plata County.

* Through 9 PM MDT this evening

* National Weather Service Meteorologists are forecasting heavy
rainfall over and near the 416 Fire burn scar, which may lead
to flash flooding and debris flows. In addition to the heavy
rainfall portions of the 416 burn scar received around one
inch of rain Friday so the ground is likely saturated in spots
and therefore it may increase the runoff.

* The potential for heavy rainfall over the 416 Wildfire burn
scar is of particular concern due to the threat of debris
flows and flash flooding. Residents near this wildfire burn
scar and along the Highway 550 corridor near Hermosa should
prepare for potential flooding impacts. Be sure to stay up to
date with information from local authorities.”

All of that being said the new morning model runs show the continuing trend of moving the heaviest precip into Archuleta County this afternoon, hopefully, some of Eastern La Plata will get in on that since they have been repeatedly blanked by the last couple of events.

I found this interesting in the overnight AFD (area forecast discussion), it shows how uncertain they are about what to expect.

“It is important to stress that, even in the short-term,
significant discrepancies can emerge amongst forecast models.
While the presence of the shortwave is evident in the latest model
runs, the exact track remains uncertain. Looking at the high-
resolution models, the NAM12 carries the shortwave from the west-
central New Mexico north into Archuleta County before drifting
east. The HRRR has a similar origin point, only it advects the
shortwave further north along the Continental Divide before
tracking east. As far as the extended models go, both the Euro and
the Canadian favor the more southerly track while the GFS is
similar to the HRRR. The ultimate track of the shortwave this
afternoon and evening will considerably alter storm coverage and
intensity, especially if the greater support aloft remains to the
east.”

I understand the CYA but she references the NAM12 model which is hardly ever used anymore, the HRRR model that does not work in mixed terrain (it works GREAT over flat terrain), and the GFS, well, you know how I feel about that.

So, the WRF which was about 75% useful last winter, is the only real alternative for us to reference. That being said it was wrong yesterday morning and Friday morning.

Here is animated future radar from 9 am this morning through Monday at 6 am.

This shows a crushing blow to Pagosa around 4-6 pm this afternoon. My only issue is that there is still a lot of available moisture to the west. Clouds kill convection, there are plenty of clouds today, it will take another trigger, voila another shortwave.

Here is the moisture plume.

Will some of us get a repeat of Friday? Will the heaviest rains track over Pagosa? Will they miss everyone and go north? Hell if I know. This reminds me of the problems I had with the models during the 17-18′ winter. I am anxious to see the first major trough come into the west, also the possibility of a recurving typhoon or cyclone in the hyper-active western pacific.

This week, Monday through at least Wednesday, drier weather will prevail for low and most middle elevations. However, in the higher terrain, there will be a chance of high heat based thunderstorms (Nonsoon) nearly every day.

 

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