There is very little to talk about with our weather for the weekend. Most models show some high elevation heat-based (Nonsoon) thunderstorms firing especially Friday and Sunday afternoon, then increasing slightly in intensity on Monday afternoon. This is not news for late summer.
I am delaying my Hurricane Dorian (full) post another 24 hours, the Euro is really messing with the NHC, I am not sure what happened but the latest operational run of the Euro is diving the hurricane south through the central Bahamas and not making a full landfall, but instead skirting the Florida Coast bringing hurricane conditions to most of the Florida eastern Coast from Tuesday morning through Thursday before downgrading to a tropical storm near JAX, then heading up the GA coast and into South Carolina Coast by next weekend (9/7). Everything tells me this is a highly unlikely scenario due to the subsidence (unfavorable conditions for development) that far south.
So now, the Euro has either lost step, or is brilliant and we need a couple of more runs to figure out which. It is also keeping the heaviest rains just offshore until it gets to Cocoa Beach and drops about a foot.
I am watching other models including the German ICON model, which has been the most accurate so far with its path.
The NHC will not be able to narrow the cone until there is more consistency.
I have seen model runs over the days that show landfall anywhere from Miami to Daytona with intensities of Cat 2 to Cat 4.
I have also seen model runs showing it hitting Ft Lauderdale then Naples, then Tampa then crossing the state and heading into Georgia and the Carolinas.
So, for now, no cool pictures of model runs, when the models are not consistent I don’t want something being shared when there is so much at stake.